Development of a medium- and long-term forecast for the development of Russia's foreign trade in the context of systemic anti-Russian sanctions (F104-16-23) – Spartak A.N.
Modern conditions require a fresh look at the fundamental principles of foreign trade activity, as well as the criteria that should guide its implementation. The practice of making forecasts, both long-term and medium-term/quarterly, also needs to be updated
#forecast #foreign trade #goods #exports #imports #market conditions #sanctions
Expected results:

    • Methodology of medium-term forecasting of foreign trade of the Russian Federation in the context of systemic anti-Russian sanctions.
    • A scientifically based medium-term forecast of the development of the Russian Federation's foreign trade, taking into account the effects of systemic anti-Russian sanctions, post-pandemic effects, structural and technological shifts, factors of the global general economic and commodity conjuncture, trade and economic policy.
    • Quarterly update of the forecast for 2023, taking into account the changing influence of certain factors taken into account in the forecast on the physical and price parameters of trade.
    • The practical significance of the expected results is determined by the possibility of their use in the development of a medium-term forecast of the socio-economic development of the country, as well as in the operational activities of ministries and departments with competence in the foreign trade sector.

Development of a software, model and expert apparatus for assessing and analyzing the current workload of checkpoints across the State Border of the Russian Federation and forecast values, taking into account the priority areas of economic development of the Russian Federation (including in the context of imposed restrictions on foreign trade (F105-12-23) – Gordeev D.S..
International activities within the competence of the customs service are the basis for a consistent and systematic solution to the problems of ensuring Russia's economic security, in this regard, the tools for assessing and analyzing the current and projected congestion at checkpoints across the State border of the Russian Federation require improvement
#checkpoints #foreign trade #commodity turnover #cargo turnover #border sections
Expected results:
    • A model package has been developed that allows analyzing the current workload of checkpoints and predicting the further loading of checkpoints depending on the scenarios of the development of foreign trade. A list of checkpoints that need to be upgraded as a matter of priority has been developed.
    • A database has been created for the movement of goods, vehicles and individuals through checkpoints in the context of types of goods and countries of origin/destination

Analysis of the consequences of changes in foreign trade conditions and restrictions on the state of the domestic market for certain goods (F106-16-23) – Knobel A.Y.
Building models of partial economic equilibrium is an adequate method for assessing the effects of changes in foreign trade conditions in certain sectors of the economy, as well as the effect on foreign trade, production, and domestic consumption from the imposition of embargoes, import tariffs, and quotas #foreign trade #partial equilibrium #trade policy #exchange rate #world prices #domestic market
Expected results:
    • A detailed description of the market structure of the most important traded goods and the main related industries.
    • A set of partial equilibrium models has been developed for the commodity markets under consideration
    • A list of current constraints has been formed and formalized for further use in numerical modeling.
    • The necessary statistics have been collected for use in the constructed models.
    • A list of possible scenarios for foreign trade regulation has been created, taking into account various assumptions about the global market, current restrictions and key macroeconomic indicators.
    • Scenario modeling was carried out. Based on it, recommendations on trade policy measures have been formed.

Development of a methodology for assessing the effects of foreign trade restrictions imposed on Russian goods and services, proposals for response measures and a model for predicting the effectiveness of retaliatory measures (P101-12-23) – Knobel A.Y.
Due to the changes in the external economic and foreign policy environment in the Russian economy, the tasks of import substitution of commodity groups subject to sanctions and the reorientation of export flows from Western markets should be solved as soon as possible.
#foreign trade #exports #sanctions #trade policy #customs duties #services #restrictions
Expected results:
    • The analysis of restrictive measures of foreign trade regulation of a sanctioned nature in relation to Russian goods and services is carried out.,
    • The most sensitive sectors of Russian exports to such restrictions have been identified, which implies systematization of the measures under consideration and subsequent work with a structured database.
    • The conditions of access of Russian suppliers of goods and services considered in the research to the markets of countries that do not pursue a sanctions policy against Russia are analyzed, which will provide a set of information about regulatory practices and barriers that Russian exporters face in foreign markets that require consideration regarding their elimination/reduction.
    • The results of the analysis of the frequency and tone of news reports on the access of Russian companies to foreign markets are presented.
    • A methodology for assessing the effects of foreign trade restrictions has been developed, based on which an assessment of the effects of restrictive measures on Russian goods and services has been carried out.
    • Proposals have been formed on appropriate measures to respond to the imposed foreign trade restrictions on Russia. The methodology and model of forecasting the effectiveness of the proposed measures are presented.
    • The results of modeling the effects of the analyzed response measures are presented, as well as final recommendations on the most effective regulatory measures.

Comprehensive analysis of trends, directions and prospects for expanding trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Arab countries (P102-25-23) - Spartak A.N.
Relations with Arab countries have been the focus of attention for many decades, but in the face of sanctions from Western countries, the prospect of further increasing Russian exports of food and medicines to Arab countries is becoming particularly relevant. The Arab countries' achievement of a high technological level opens up new areas of cooperation.
#Arab countries #Arab League #foreign trade #exports #imports #investments
Expected results:
    • Assessment of trends, directions, features, limitations and risks of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Arab countries.
    • The potential for expanding and diversifying Russian exports of goods and services to Arab countries, taking into account sanctions factors.
    • Medium-term forecast of Russia's trade with Arab countries, taking into account the sanctions factors.
    • The rating of the attractiveness of the Arab states as trade and economic partners of Russia, taking into account the sanctions factors.
    • The practical significance of the results of the work is due to the need to expand and diversify Russia's trade and economic cooperation with unauthorized countries, identify ways, directions and mechanisms for solving this problem in order to implement the recommendations received in the operational activities of ministries and departments responsible for foreign economic cooperation of the Russian Federation.

Development of conceptual approaches, methodological and practical proposals for monitoring the results and identifying promising areas/projects of bilateral Russian-Chinese trade and economic cooperation, taking into account sanctions factors (P103-25-23) - Knobel A.Y.
Trade and economic relations between Russia and China under the sanctions regime are an important resource for economic development and maintaining Russia's position in the global economy. In these circumstances, China is becoming an important, promising and promising partner.
#Trade and economic cooperation #exports #imports #investments #projects #roadmap #monitoring #potential
Expected results:
    • Scientific and methodological tools for a comprehensive assessment of the results and prospects of bilateral Russian-Chinese trade and economic cooperation.
    • Analysis and monitoring of the implementation of the Roadmap for increasing Russian-Chinese trade in goods and services to 2020 billion dollars by 2024
    • Assessment of the potential for increasing exports of Russian non-primary non-energy goods and services to China, taking into account the systemic anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Western and affiliated countries.
    • A set of specific scientifically based proposals on the possibilities of expanding mutual trade and investment between the Russian Federation and China in the period up to 2030, taking into account the sanctions factors.